SimPersonas predicted the 2024 US election within 0.12 points.
Our proprietary synthetic persona system, tested on an AI that knew nothing after October 2023.
We asked 20,400 voters in every state one question.
“In the November 2024 presidential election, the candidates are Kamala Harris (Democrat) and Donald Trump (Republican). Who will you vote for?”
Real Census records
400 people per state, each with a real age, job, income, education and home.
Knowledge ends October 2023
OpenAI’s GPT-4o mini answered for every voter. It does not know who won.
Results locked first
We saved the real results before the first voter answered.
How our voters called each state.
- Panel called Harris
- Panel called Trump
- Click a state to see its voters
Got doubts? We got answers.
- Objection 1
“The AI already knew who won.”
The AI is OpenAI's GPT-4o mini. Its knowledge ends in October 2023, a year before the vote. Ask it who won, and it says it does not know.
- Objection 2
“Any AI could do this.”
The AI is a small, low-cost 2024 model. The accuracy comes from SimPersonas: 20,400 real Census voters, state by state.
- Objection 3
“You tuned it until it matched.”
We saved the real results before the first voter answered, and wrote down every setup before its run. The final setup then ran again on fresh voters it had never seen.
- Objection 4
“These voters are made up.”
Every voter is a real US Census record, drawn by population weight in each state, with a real age, job, income, education and home. The AI only answered for them.
- Objection 5
“Anyone can call a 50/50 race.”
A coin flip calls 20 of 51 states. Our voters called 49.
- Objection 6
“It is one lucky number.”
We ran two separate groups of 200 voters in every state. Both landed within a third of a point of the real national result.
Check every answer yourself.
Every voter’s Census facts, the AI’s answer and its reason, and the state figures that rebuild 50.87%.
Ask your audience before you spend.
The 2026 midterms
Which party will win the House on November 3?
- Democrats
- Republicans
What else can you use SimPersonas for?
Your next ad
Which of these three ads makes your buyer click?
- Ad A
- Ad B
- Ad C
Your price
At what price does your buyer walk away?
- $29
- $39
- $49
Your product name
Which name would your buyer remember and trust?
- Name A
- Name B
- Name C
Your own question
Ask any question to the exact people you sell to.
- Percentages
- Harris and Trump votes only, third parties left out
- Real results
- FEC official 2024 results
- Personas
- US Census ACS 2023 microdata
- Model
- gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18
- Portraits
- White House, public domain
Not affiliated with or endorsed by either campaign, the FEC or the Census Bureau.