Presidential vote choice between Harris and Trump in November 2024 | SimPersonas
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Presidential vote choice between Harris and Trump in November 2024Synthetic Audience Study
Synthetic Audience Study
We asked 20,400 people in the United States, ages 18 to 99:
In the November 2024 presidential election, the candidates are Kamala Harris (Democrat) and Donald Trump (Republican). Who will you vote for?
This audience is almost evenly split in the two-party vote, with Trump holding a very slim edge over Harris.
Share of the vote
1Donald Trump50.87%
2Kamala Harris49.13%
Answered20,309of the 20,400 people asked
01
Verdict
One call and the findings behind it.
Trump leads with 50.87% of the vote, but the race is too close to call.
People who lean toward Trump give this top reason: their state favors Republicans. 5,205 people said it.See the reasons
Harris has 49.13% of the vote. Their top reason is that education favors Harris, said by 3,540 people.See the reasons
02
The reasons
19,771 of the 20,309 people who answered are in these 2 groups. This is why each group chose what it chose.
50.87%
Donald Trump
State favors Republicans5,205
Economic interests align4,758
Working-class appeal fits2,826
Woman, 34, Alaska, 34AlaskaDrywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers
“This woman works in a skilled trade and likely values economic stability and job growth, which may lead her to support Donald Trump, who has a strong base among working-class voters in similar fields.”
49.13%
Kamala Harris
Education favors Harris3,540
Professional role fits Harris2,682
Income supports Harris2,294
Woman, 33, Colorado, 33ColoradoMeeting, convention, and event planners
“This person is likely to support Kamala Harris due to her progressive values aligning with the woman's education and profession in event planning, which often emphasizes inclusivity and social issues.”
03
Every answerall 19,771 personas
Every person, their answer, and the reason given for it.
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19,771 people
PersonAnswerWhy
About
A 62-year-old woman who lives in Alabama. Education: Bachelor's degree. Work: registered nurses. Household income: $87,000 a year. Home: owns their home.
Donald Trump50.87%
Kamala Harris49.13%
2:30
